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How the markets have reacted to the 2020 US election

After a tumultuous election which saw some unexpected results such as Georgia swinging in the Democrats’ favour, and protests at polling stations which involved chants of both “Count the votes!” and “Stop the count!” the dust has begun to settle, somewhat.

Many of President Trump’s series of lawsuits contesting results in states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have now been thrown out of the courts, and he even hinted towards a concession by telling his government to cooperate with the transition to a Biden presidency.

Traditionally, 8th December is a “safe harbour” deadline where any controversy regarding election disputes are resolved, and so we can now, cautiously, expect said controversy to dwindle. With Joe Biden holding the most electoral votes, the Republicans likely holding the senate, the Democrats likely holding control of Congress, and the Republicans controlling the Supreme Court, we can expect the four branches of the government to be split between the two parties. 

So what does this mean for the markets? According to Marko Kolanovic of J.P. Morgan, “For US stocks, this is likely the best of both worlds. A potential Republican Senate majority should ensure that Trump’s pro-business policies stay largely intact, particularly the tax code and the direction the country has taken towards the center.” Biden will be unlikely to be able to enact any radical economic structuring due to constraints from the Republican senate, which may well result in confidence in lower volatility. 

In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke records by crossing 30,000 for the first time after Trump directed his aides to cooperate with Biden’s transition. This announcement helped to relieve some uncertainty relating to political risks over the winter. S&P 500 also saw gains of 1.6%, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.3% too. In fact, if the S&P 500 finishes this year on a high it would be the first time in history for the index to finish a year higher after falling 30% or more within that year. 

Of course, a slowdown is entirely possible, and caution is always advised when considering risk assets. As the transition from Trump to Biden continues to unfold, the markets will continue to develop their reaction.

Sources
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/market-reaction-2020-election
https://www.ft.com/content/433048a5-c489-4ddd-aebd-d56fb8f3edfc
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-11-24-2020-11606213552

How long does it take to beat a bear market?

The current COVID-19 crisis has wiped billions from the world’s financial markets. In the world of investing, such markets where share prices are falling are known as bear markets. 

Beating a bear isn’t easy, but you’ll be pleased to read that in all 10 prior occasions, the FTSE All-Share has completely made up the ground in the next bull market, a market where share prices are rising. Unfortunately, it usually takes longer for markets to rise than it does for them to fall. 

Bear markets are typically nasty, brutish and short, like recessions rather than economic upturns. Again using the All-Share as a guide, the average time it has taken to recover a bear market loss is 648 days, compared to the 385-day average market downturn.

Staying invested even when markets are falling can be wise because if you sell, you own less shares that can potentially gain value when the market starts to rise again. Stock market investing is best conceived as a long term game played over years rather than months.

Watch out for the bear traps

Bear markets are littered with sharp advances which often turn out to be nothing more than small peaks before the downward turn resumes. These are perilous to investors who opt for a ‘buy on the dip’ investment strategy.

For example, during the 2000-03 bear market that followed the dot-com bubble, there were six major rallies in the All-Share that generated a combined gain of 2,030 points, even as the index actually declined by 1,649 points overall during this period. Those who piled into these market rallies would have lost out in the long run.

Nine of the ten largest single day surges on America’s S&P 500 index have been during bear markets. Beating a bear is a slow game, and those who are over-eager can suffer larger losses. 

Trying to see the bottom

Bear markets are like a murky pond – it’s impossible to see the bottom or the trough until after it has passed.

For those of us who don’t have a crystal ball, it’s impossible to foresee exactly how low markets will fall. Taking a slow and steady approach is probably your best bet to conserve your portfolio’s value. This might mean a lower return than a brash approach, but you’re not putting too much money at risk. Additional pain is suffered by those who plough lots of capital into ‘bear trap’ short term rallies.

Sources
https://www.investcentre.co.uk/articles/how-long-does-it-take-beat-bear?utm_source=http%3a%2f%2fmail.investcentre.co.uk%2fajbell_investcentrelz%2f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Russ_Weekly_22%2f03&utm_term=Investigating+the+histo

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/coronavirus-qa-does-covid-19-pandemic-mean-money-ask-investing/